Did the red card beat Milan, or had Bournemouth already won?

When a goalkeeper is sent off and his side loses 3–0, the explanation writes itself. Mike Maignan was shown a red card in the 27th minute on Thursday, conceding the penalty that made it 2–0, and Milan played the remaining hour and more at the Vitality Stadium with ten men.

The event data tells a different story. Bournemouth did their most damaging work before the red card. The extra man changed who had the ball. It did not make Bournemouth more dangerous, and by some measures it made them less so.

Twenty-seven minutes of 11 against 11

Milan actually had more of the ball at the start. They completed 113 passes before the red card to Bournemouth’s 101. But 73% of Milan’s passes in that spell were played in their own half, and they completed a pass into the final third only three times.

That was by Bournemouth’s design. They pressed high from the first whistle. Their PPDA was 7.9 before the red card, against Milan’s 26.0. PPDA, or passes per defensive action (explained here), counts how many passes a side allows the opponent before making a tackle, interception or foul. Put simply, Bournemouth stepped in after about eight Milan passes. Milan let Bournemouth make 26.

The press produced turnovers in dangerous places. Bournemouth won the ball in the attacking 40% of the pitch nine times before the red card. Milan did it once. The opening goal came from exactly this. In the fourth minute Koni De Winter gave the ball away close to his own goal line and Evanilson pounced. Justin Kluivert shot wide and Ben Gannon-Doak’s follow-up was blocked. Within a minute of the corner that followed, De Winter conceded a penalty, and Kluivert scored it in the eighth minute.

Bournemouth took eight shots in those 27 minutes and Milan took one, a Yunus Musah effort 16 seconds after kick-off.

The red card

The sending-off came from a Bournemouth corner. Kluivert swung the ball into the box, Maignan fouled Tyler Adams, and the referee, Vasilis Fotias, gave a penalty and sent Maignan off. Milan sacrificed Omari Hutchinson to bring on the reserve goalkeeper Lorenzo Torriani, and Marcus Tavernier scored from the spot in the 32nd minute.

From then on it was 11 against 10 for 71 minutes on the match clock, stoppage time included.

More of the ball, fewer chances

The obvious change after the red card was possession. Bournemouth’s share of completed passes went from 47% to 75%, and their share of passes in the final third from 61% to 81%. Milan stopped trying to play out from the back: 7% of their passes were long balls before the red card, and 28% after it.

The chances did not follow the ball. Bournemouth took shots at a rate of 26.7 per 90 minutes before the red card and 15.2 per 90 after it. Their share of the match’s shots hardly moved, 89% before and 86% after, because Milan barely shot in either spell.

The type of chance changed too. Before the red card, five of Bournemouth’s eight shots came from open play and four were on target. After it, nine of their 12 shots came from dead balls: corners, free kicks, throw-in routines and Tavernier’s penalty. Half were from outside the box, and only three were on target. Two of those were the penalty and Amine Adli’s free kick in the 84th minute.

That is what a ten-man side sitting deep looks like. WhoScored’s formation data shows Milan switching to a back five at half-time, which left Bournemouth very little room between the lines. Bournemouth kept pressing just as hard (their PPDA went from 7.9 to 8.7), but with Milan kicking long there was less to win high up. They made six ball wins in the attacking 40% in 71 minutes after the red card, compared with nine in 27 minutes before it.

Before and after the red card

Bournemouth – Milan	11 v 11	11 v 10
Minutes on the clock	27	71
Shots	8 – 1	12 – 2
Shots per 90 minutes	26.7 – 3.3	15.2 – 2.5
Shots on target	4 – 0	3 – 0
Completed passes	101 – 113	377 – 127
Completed passes into the final third	8 – 3	40 – 13
PPDA (lower = more pressing)	7.9 – 26.0	8.7 – 19.3
Ball wins in the attacking 40%	9 – 1	6 – 6
Long balls, % of passes	18% – 7%	10% – 28%

Bournemouth’s changes on the hour brought a brief surge. Kluivert, Tavernier, Adams and Evanilson all went off between the 62nd and 65th minutes, and Bournemouth then took six shots in four minutes, between the 67th and 71st. Five of the six came from throw-ins or corners.

Milan’s three shots

Milan’s attacking output is the starkest number in the match. They took three shots in all: Musah’s effort in the first minute, then nothing until two headers from set pieces in the 75th. None of the three hit the target.

Milan went from the first minute to the 75th without a shot.

Milan went from the first minute to the 75th without a shot, and that drought began at 11 against 11. The red card made it longer, but Bournemouth’s press had already shut Milan out before it.

What it means

The red card decided how the match was played, but probably not who won it. Before Maignan went off, Bournemouth were already a goal up, had won the ball high up nine times to Milan’s one, and had outshot them eight to one. After it they completed three-quarters of the match’s passes and created less from open play.

There are two caveats. First, this piece counts shots rather than weighing their quality with expected goals, so it shows how often Bournemouth threatened, not exactly how good each chance was. Second, the sample is small. Twenty-seven minutes is a short spell, and a team that scores in the eighth minute often presses with extra freedom.

What to watch next: whether Bournemouth’s press is as effective in Europe against opponents who keep eleven men on the pitch for 90 minutes, and whether they find a better answer than long-range shots and throw-in routines the next time a side sits deep against them.

Method and data

Opta event data for Bournemouth v AC Milan, UEFA Europa League, 22 October 2026, taken from the WhoScored match centre. The match is split at Maignan's red card (26:57 on the expanded match clock, which includes stoppage time), giving 26.9 minutes of 11 against 11 and 71.3 minutes of 11 against 10. Minutes in the text follow the usual convention, so 26:57 is the 27th minute. Passes in the final third are passes that start in the attacking third. PPDA counts opponent passes in their own 60% of the pitch, divided by tackles, interceptions and fouls in the pressing side's attacking 60%. Ball wins in the attacking 40% are ball recoveries, interceptions and successful tackles there. Dead-ball shots are those Opta tags as coming from a corner, free kick, throw-in routine, other set piece or penalty. Blocked shots do not count as on target. Formations are as WhoScored labels them. All figures were computed in code from the event data.